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[حسام المصرى]

The BBC's Middle East editor Jeremy Bowen writes: In his victory speech President Obama told Americans that 10 years of war were ending. But turbulence in the Middle East means that military action, perhaps even new wars, will push back on to his agenda.


The Syrian war is leaking into neighbouring countries. Second term Obama is likely to authorise more support of the Syrian rebels, short of direct US military intervention.

An even bigger decision awaits on Iran. If by next summer the US and its key allies still believe that Iran is developing a nuclear weapon, despite talks and sanctions, President Obama will have to decide whether or not to attack Iran's nuclear sites, or to give Israel a green light to go to war.

America has to build new relations with Arab countries that have elected Islamist political leaders, and to respond if the Arab uprisings continue to spread to its allies in the Gulf. Another crisis between Israel and the Palestinians is overdue. When it comes, Obama will be tempted to revive the push for peace he abandoned in his first term.

Behind every decision will be the knowledge that, despite its huge military power, America's political leverage in the Middle East is in decline. Compliant, reliable, authoritarian allies have been deposed. And a new generation that sees America as an adversary, not a friend, is being empowered.

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